Fraud industry predictions 2023: Mid-year check-in with Frank McKenna and Mary Ann Miller
Frank McKenna and Mary Ann Miller
Today we are talking about fraud industry predictions 2023 and doing something I think more people in fraud should do more often, which is go back, review what we thought was coming, and be honest about what actually happened.
I sat down with two long-time friends and fraud experts, Frank McKenna and Mary Ann Miller, to revisit the predictions we shared at the start of the year and compare them to what we had actually seen in the first six months of 2023\. Some predictions came true, even though we really wished they had not. Some did not show up the way we expected. And some of the biggest developments were not even on the original list.
That is why I love conversations like this. Fraud industry predictions 2023 are not just about being right or wrong. They are about sharpening how we think, learning from what the market is telling us, and paying closer attention to the signals that matter across banking, fintech, ecommerce, marketplaces, and beyond.
And that matters.
Because fraud does not stand still, and neither should fraud strategy. A mid-year fraud review helps us look at the fraud trends 2023 actually delivered, what those shifts mean for the rest of the year, and what fraud leaders should be watching more closely now.
What you’ll hear in this episode:
- Which fraud industry predictions 2023 proved accurate in the first half of the year
- Which expected fraud trends 2023 did not show up as strongly as we thought they would
- What emerging fraud threats and headlines caught us off guard
- What banking fraud trends, fintech fraud risks, and ecommerce fraud trends deserve more attention now
- What Frank, Mary Ann, and I are watching for the rest of the year
You should listen to this episode if you:
- Want a practical mid-year fraud review grounded in real fraud expert insights
- Work in banking, fintech, ecommerce, or marketplaces and need a broader fraud industry outlook
- Care about fraud prevention forecasts and how they compare to actual events
- Need a clearer view of evolving fraud tactics across sectors
- Want fraud leadership insights that help you plan for the second half of the year
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Episode notes & key takeaways
Why fraud industry predictions 2023 deserve a mid-year reset
Let’s break this down.
One of the most useful things fraud teams can do is stop treating predictions like a one-time January exercise. Fraud industry predictions 2023 only become valuable if we revisit them, stress test them, and learn from the differences between what we expected and what actually unfolded. That is exactly what this episode does.
A lot can happen in six months. Some threats accelerate. Others stall. Some trends that looked obvious early in the year turn out to be less significant than expected, while completely different attack patterns end up dominating headlines. A mid-year fraud review helps teams avoid clinging to outdated assumptions and instead respond to the reality in front of them.
Here is what is actually changing:
- Fraud industry predictions 2023 become more useful when they are revisited mid-year
- Fraud trends 2023 need to be measured against real events, not just early assumptions
- Fraud prevention forecasts should evolve as the landscape changes
- Fraud leadership insights get stronger when teams are willing to challenge their own expectations
What the first half of 2023 taught us about fraud trends
Here’s what’s actually happening.
The first half of 2023 was a reminder that fraud is rarely confined to one sector or one tactic. Banking fraud trends, ecommerce fraud trends, fintech fraud risks, and identity fraud trends all kept evolving, often in ways that overlapped more than people expected. That cross-industry movement is part of what makes fraud so hard to predict neatly.
This conversation looks at which predictions came true, which ones did not, and what the broader online fraud industry can learn from that. The goal is not just to score predictions. It is to understand what the last six months revealed about how fraudsters are adapting and where defenders may still be underestimating the risk.
- Banking fraud trends continue to influence and be influenced by broader fraud patterns
- Ecommerce fraud trends and fintech fraud risks are increasingly connected
- Identity fraud trends remain central to many evolving attack paths
- Fraud expert insights help turn scattered headlines into a more useful fraud industry outlook
Why the biggest fraud stories are not always the ones we predicted
This is one of the most important parts of the conversation.
Some of the most valuable learning in a prediction review comes from what did not make the list. Fraud experts can identify likely patterns, but there are always emerging fraud threats that rise faster than expected or in a completely different form. That is why reviewing the gaps matters just as much as reviewing the hits.
If you only focus on the predictions that were accurate, you miss what the market taught you. The surprise developments, unexpected headlines, and evolving fraud tactics that were not on anyone’s radar are often where the most useful lessons live. That is especially true for leaders trying to prepare teams for what could still happen in the second half of the year.
- Emerging fraud threats often create the most valuable lessons for the rest of the year
- Cyber fraud predictions are useful, but they will never capture every real-world shift
- A strong fraud industry outlook includes what was missed, not just what was forecasted
- Evolving fraud tactics often show up first as surprises, not consensus trends
What fraud leaders should watch for in the second half of 2023
A good mid-year check-in is not only about looking backward. It is also about refining what deserves attention next. That is where this conversation becomes especially useful. Frank, Mary Ann, and I talk through the issues we are keeping an eye on and where we think the fraud landscape could create bigger challenges before year-end.
That kind of forward-looking thinking matters because fraud prevention forecasts are only helpful if they lead to better preparation. Whether you are focused on payment fraud trends, marketplace fraud trends, banking fraud trends, or broader cyber fraud predictions, the question is the same. What do you need to pay closer attention to now so you are not reacting too late later?
- Mid-year fraud review should lead to sharper priorities for the months ahead
- Payment fraud trends and marketplace fraud trends need ongoing attention as tactics evolve
- Fraud leadership insights are most valuable when they help teams prepare, not just reflect
- The strongest fraud strategies stay flexible as the fraud industry outlook continues to shift
The big takeaway from this episode is pretty straightforward. Fraud industry predictions 2023 are most useful when they become part of an ongoing conversation, not a static list. Looking at what came true, what surprised us, and what still looks risky helps teams make better decisions for the rest of the year. That kind of honest review is how fraud leaders stay sharper, more adaptive, and more prepared for what comes next.
